Eye on Africa

** Photo Mvemba Phezo Dizolele – Sunset over the Congo River in Kinshasa

***Photo Mvemba Phezo Dizolele. Uruguayan peacekeepers on patrol on Lake Albert, Ituri.

In its October 2 Report, the International Crisis Group reviews what went wrong during the first round of the elections and the ensuing fight between Kabila’s and Bemba’s troops, and offers policy recommendations for the upcoming presidential runoff.

The overview:

Hours before the first-round results of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s presidential elections were to be announced in Kinshasa on 20 August 2006, violence erupted between troops loyal to Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba and those loyal to the incumbent, Joseph Kabila, providing dramatic proof of the fragility of the electoral process. Because both Kabila and Bemba will be tempted to use violence should they lose the second round, and the former in particular is very strong militarily, the Congolese government and the international community must move quickly to make secure the run-off as well as the provincial assembly elections on 29 October. Militias also threaten stability elsewhere in the country, notably in North Kivu and Ituri, but the capital is likely to be the most sensitive location again. A three-pronged strategy is required: improving security in Kinshasa, promoting a more responsible approach to the media and resolving some basic problems in the electoral process.

***Photo Mvemba Phezo Dizolele. Residential downtown Kinshasa.

Earlier this month, in a commentary piece for World Politics Watch called "The Battle for Kinshasa," I examined the political importance of the country’s capital for anyone who means to gain power. This week I discuss my perspectives with WPW’s editor, Guy Taylor. Listen to the podcast.

***Photo Mvemba Phezo Dizolele - Kinshasa.

“A large fire broke out Monday at the party headquarters of Congolese presidential challenger Jean-Pierre Bemba.

Smoked poured out into the street as firefighters worked to contain the blaze in the late afternoon. U.N. tanks arrived to secure the area while Bemba supporters gathered outside the building, chanting "Things are going to get hot today! Those who think Bemba will die are wrong!"

The United Nations has a large force in the restive Central African country to secure elections — the country’s first multiparty presidential ballot in more than four decades.

Unexplained fires also broke out during the first round of presidential campaigning.

Everyone was successfully evacuated from the burning building, which also houses the party’s television and radio stations, said Jean-Pie Ndjojdi, assistant director of one of the two television stations.

In my view, no politician has led Congo without the support of Kinshasa. In today’s World Politics Watch, I argue just that in a piece entitled Congo’s Election: the Battle for Kinshasa.

While Congolese waited for the presidential election results last month, I heard several half-truths about Congo. The one that has stuck with me happens to be a favorite among Western diplomats. “Kinshasa is not Congo,” they say, commenting on the east-west tension surrounding President Joseph Kabila’s candidacy. Their premise is sound, but their conclusion is wrong.

Kinshasa, which lies in the country’s far west, is the gate to Congo – and whoever holds the key to the city controls national politics. With more than 7 million residents and 12 percent of voters, the capital is also the country’s most ethnically integrated city — a city state.

Kabila, who benefited from popular support in the east, won 45 percent of the vote against 32 contenders in the July 30 election, but lost

Kinshasa. His main challenger, Vice-President Jean-Pierre Bemba, received 20 percent of the vote, won in the west and enjoys substantial popularity in the capital. Bemba’s success in

Remember Pierre-Jacques Chalupa? Yes. The white candidate for parliament I wrote about several weeks ago. I called him a pioneer. Indeed, pioneer he is. Last week he won one of 14 seats in

As an independent candidate, Chalupa fought a good fight. He gathered 6,992 votes and beat over 100 contenders to secure his seat. In muddled Congolese politics, this is a feat. His victory speaks not only of Chalupa’s performance, but of the voter’s maturity.

A quick look at the presidential elections results suggests that voters chose their candidates primarily based on issues – not ethnicity. Sure, in some areas, ethnicity played a role. But overall, the candidate’s perceived commitment to defend Congo’s interests played a greater role.

That is why Oscar Kashala did better than Justine Kasa-Vubu in her bastion of Bas-Congo. Jean-Pierre Bemba managed to garner 20 percent of the vote in Joseph Kabila’s stronghold. Even Kabila’s success in the east is mostly based on the perception that he is the artisan of peace, not his Swahili affiliation.

It has been a week since forces loyal to President Kabila and Vice-President Bemba’s troops fought each other for three days in

We thought a militia leader would stir trouble somewhere in the east – the Kivus, Ituri or Katanga. Instead, Kinshasa-la-Belle was the battlefield. The troublemakers? Well, the president and the vice-president — the two winners of the first round. That’s the first surprise.

The second surprise is the international community’s reaction to what happened. After much chest-pounding and gun-toting, EUFOR, the European Union forces stationed in

The third, and most unnerving surprise, is the tepid response of Western powers. Perhaps there was no sympathy for JP Bemba. Or suppose the vice-president initiated the fight as the presidential camp would have the world believe, and therefore deserved what he got – an attempt on his life, the destruction of his TV stations and helicopter. 

The population of Kinshasa is worried about reports of seven trucks of ammunitions that arrived from the port of Matadi a few days ago. Apparently, the trucks carried ammunition loads for the national army. The Kinois, however, do not want anything to do with them. They want details about the delivery. Where from? Where to? For what purpose?  Lt-Colonel Thierry Fusalba, spokesman for EUFOR has confirmed the arrival of the trucks last week and agrees that these reports do not reassure the population. Major Olivier Kuster, his counterpart at MONUC, has told Agence France Press that an investigation is underway. The Kinois trust neither MONUC nor EUFOR. A convoy carrying heavy weapons had reportedly arrived from Matadi a few days before the fight between Bemba’s and Kabila’s troops. It’s a question of trust.

Read ASADHO’s report (French).

The Congolese human rights group ASADHO is alarmed by the continued violence inflicted on civilians by security agents. According to ASADHO, JP Bemba’s medical adviser, Dr. Sosso Faustin, has been missing since Sunday, August 20. He was kidnapped by a group of armed men on his way to Bemba’s party headquarters. In addition, four members of opposition parties have been in hiding, fearing for their lives in retaliation for their political opinions. They are messrs. Jean-Baptiste Bomanza, Mokia, Ezuluwa and Joseph Mabanga.

Read ASADHO’s report (French).

A few days after my trip across Congo, I sat down with Jerry Fowler at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum for an interview on Voices on Genocide Prevention. The USHMM just released the interview. As I listened to the conversation again, it became clear that the current situation in the DRC could have been prevented, had the Congolese leadership and the international community paid attention to the people’s concerns.

For instance, it is obvious that, while the people were ready for the elections, the general security conditions were not met. Security safeguards were not put in place to ensure that the process met minimum security requirements. This meant that the army and the police had to be fully intergrated before the elections took place. Today, the lack of security safeguards threatens the second round of elections and the peace that Congolese have enjoyed lately. The recent fight between Kabila’s and Bemba’s militiamen in Kinshasa confirmed that fear.

Listen to the interview with Jerry Fowler

Read the interview transcript