Eye on Africa

***Photo Mvemba Phezo Dizolele - Kinshasa.

Now that the Supreme Court has rejected UpN’s charges of widespread electoral fraud and confirmed Joseph Kabila’s victory, the time has come for Jean-Pierre Bemba Gombo to concede defeat.

To be sure, this electoral process has been plagued with a number of problems, from lack of voter education to uneven access to finance to questionably high turnout rates in some areas on Polling Day. In the justices’ judgment, however, these irregularities did not constitute ground for the cancellation of Kabila’s victory. There is no more legal recourse for UpN.
 
As the election’s results show, Bemba has fought a good fight – winning 42 percent of the votes. In a way, the UpN has lost a battle – not the war. Bemba himself, like the Congolese people, has traveled a long way. In five years, he evolved from fils à papa to rebel leader to vice-president to become the main challenger against an entrenched Kabila regime. He denied Kabila’s AMP victory in half of the country (including Kinshasa), forcing the so-called East-West divide. UpN’s victory in the West, and the popular and strident anti-Kabila discontent it represents, weakens President Kabila’s mandate.

Still, Bemba fell short of the required majority to lead the country. Now that the high court has reached its verdict, Bemba has no viable option, but to accept the legal outcome. That is the sure way for him to show his love for Congo, free Kinshasa from the dangerous stalemate and help the country move forward. With the number of parliamentary and provincial legislative seats his alliance won, as well as a few governorships and national senate seats they may still win, Bemba has a platform from which to affect positive change in the country.

For this option to work, Bemba has to continue his conversion into statesman and party leader, which he undertook over recent months. His alliance will need discipline and strong leadership to survive, as the Kabila camp is determined to distract and undermine them. The longer Bemba waits to concede defeat and regroup his allies, the greater the chance to lose them at the outset. They need reassurance, vision and guidance from him. This is no time to vacillate.

As a former rebel leader, Bemba may be tempted to take the easy path of armed confrontation. But, he no longer has the arsenal and popular support for such a bloody endeavor as he enjoyed in 1998. His strongest bases are in the Equateur province and Kinshasa. Equateur, where UpN performed the best, is potentially volatile with large amounts of weapons in circulation due to a high number of demobilized soldiers. But, because Bemba’s UpN controls the province, there is no enemy. This in turn dilutes the potential for war.

The strong anti-Kabila sentiment in Kinshasa is real, exacerbated by Kabila’s presence in town and the recent “militarization” of the city. As unhappy as the Kinois are with Kabila, they are not ready to support an armed uprising. They simply want to be heard. They clamor for the restoration of national pride, which they feel has dissipated under President Kabila. While Bemba, by default, has become the vessel holding their frustrations, the people of Kinshasa and western Congo will not follow him into another rebellion – not after an election, which all parties agreed was transparent for the most part. Despite their cynicism, the Congolese are eager to see the new democracy take hold.

Bemba’s, as well as his lieutenants’ and troops’, security is an issue that needs to be addressed before he concedes. The animosity and hatred between the winner and the loser is as real as the East-West divide.

After the three-day fight between Bemba’s and Kabila’s troops this past August, and the gunfight the weekend of November 11, Bemba needs reassurance about his personal safety and that of his men. How do you trust people who have tried to kill you? And yes, there are people in Congo and within the international community who would not hesitate to eliminate him, if given a chance. As tempting as it may be for some to kill Bemba, such an action will only worsen an already precarious situation – with very ugly consequences.

Both the Kabila camp and its backers in international community have to set aside their dislike of Bemba, and provide him with an acceptable exit, one that would allow him and his followers to concede defeat. By virtue of the support granted him by the people and his subsequent strong showing on Polling Day, Bemba represents as much of the people’s will as Kabila does. His concession is critical for the success of this electoral process. Equally important is Kabila’s statesmanship at this time. The Congolese are watching.

Categorized as:Congo> Bemba> Kabila> Elections - Congo

Posted on Tuesday, November 28th, 2006 at 10:02 am You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.

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