Eye on Africa

***Photo Afrikblog. Etienne Tshisekedi addresses supporters in Kinshasa.

Forget Antoine Gizenga and never mind Nzanga Mobutu. Etienne Tshisekedi wa Mulumba holds the key to Mont Ngaliema. Whatever candidate gets his blessing will be Congo’s next president.

Once again, Tshisekedi’s UDPS is front and center in the debate. As well as it should be. After all, Congo is here today thanks to the Inter-Congolese dialogue, which Tshisekedi initiated. When the transitional government leaders dragged their feet and tried to avoid the elections altogether, Tshisekedi demanded they keep the timetable. Congolese politics does that – thrusting reluctant leaders, such as Tshisekedi, back into the fray. UDPS may be boycotting the electoral process, but their opposition cannot be neutral.

When Jean-Pierre Bemba delivered a compelling speech and unveiled his new Union pour la Nation coalition last weekend, he was flanked by several senior members of UDPS. Supporters in the crowd waved UDPS flags as they cheered for the man Congolese call Mwana Congo (the son of Congo).

It seemed Bemba had garnered UDPS backing – Tshisekedi’s tacit blessing. This development was expected, as Tshisekedi’s partisans helped place Bemba in second position in the first round. Short of their beloved helmsman, they see Mwana Congo as the defender of the nation.

The next day, however, UDPS issued an unexpected communiqué and unequivocally distanced itself from both Jean-Pierre Bemba and Joseph Kabila. In the past, such a statement would not have meant much, as UDPS is infamous for its position reversals.

This recent statement is particularly significant and unambiguous because it is signed by leaders representing two traditionally opposed wings of the party, Remy Masamba (realist) and Valentin Mubake (idealist). UDPS means to uphold its principles and boycott the electoral process to the end.

Running on a nationalist platform, Bemba stands to benefit most from UDPS’ support.  He also stands to be hurt the most by Tshisekedi’s current stance. Without Tshisekedi’s blessing, Bemba will not capture the crucial votes he needs in the Kasais. He may even lose some of his Kinshasa base, which overlaps UDPS’ front. This scenario would guarantee Kabila’s victory in the run-off.

Given the de facto collusion between Bemba’s MLC and UDPS partisans in the last round, what prompted the communiqué?

Both Kabila and Bemba have been courting Tshisekedi, but only Bemba’s efforts have received his attention. Still, UDPS leaders feel Bemba has not taken them seriously.

For a starter, at his rally last week, Bemba’s people left the impression they had secured UDPS’ backing, surrounding themselves with senior members of the party and waving UDPS flag. Up to the day of the rally, many of UDPS leaders considered supporting Bemba. Now, they resent being co-opted.

Bemba says UDPS party members came to the rally of their own will and that he had nothing to do with the use of UDPS flag.

The problem is deeper than what transpired last weekend. During MLC/UDPS negotiations, Tshisekedi’s people set forth a number of conditions.

After the gunfight in August and the fire at his television and radio stations this month, UDPS asked Bemba to withdraw from the electoral process. This would support Tshisekedi’s boycott of the process. Bemba did not accept.

UDPS also proposed that Bemba promise to dissolve the parliament within the first year of his presidency, if elected. UDPS anticipates Bemba will not be effective with a pro-Kabila parliament and an unfavorable international community. Bemba could not guarantee that. Neither did he offer a viable counter-proposal.

Furthermore, UDPS reproaches Bemba for a lack of transparency in dealing with them.

During the negotiations, Tshisekedi’s people learned from other sources that Javier Solana, the European Union foreign policy chief had offered Bemba a buy-out deal on his last visit to Kinshasa earlier this month. He proposed money, a new position as head of the opposition, and immunity from legal prosecution, should Bemba agree not to pursue the presidency. Bemba refused the deal, but in not revealing that information to UDPS he did not promote good faith.

Bemba negotiates from a position of weakness, which also does not inspire trust. From that position, he cannot guarantee to keep his promises. It requires a leap of faith. Tshisekedi has been around long enough to not have any faith in the system.

Whatever their doubt, whatever Bemba’s limitations, UDPS cannot afford to be neutral at this time. The country is at a critical juncture that cannot be reversed without consequences. UDPS has, once again, a golden opportunity to make a positive impact on the course of developments in Congo.

This time they cannot shun their responsibility. Silence is not an option, because their neutrality is in fact a decision in itself. If Tshisekedi refused to express himself on this matter, it would give Kabila the victory he needs to legitimize him. If he came out in support of Bemba, Kabila might lose – but that is no guarantee either.  By expressing himself in no uncertain terms, whatever that would be, Tshisekedi would have rendered the Congolese great service once more.

 

*****Photo from Congoone.afrikblog.com

Categorized as:Uncategorized> Congo> Bemba> Kabila> Elections - Congo

Posted on Thursday, September 28th, 2006 at 12:24 am You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.

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